With the highly-anticipated showdown less than two weeks away, candidates with low polling numbers are in a high-stakes scramble to qualify for an event that represents their best shot at breaking out.

Fox News is capping the Aug. 6 debate in Cleveland at 10 candidates based on five as-of-yet unspecified national polls released by 5 p.m. on Aug. 4.

Based on five polls used by RealClearPolitics (RCP), eight candidates look like locks to make the stage, while the race for the final two slots is headed for a controversial photo finish. For the candidates currently ranked between ninth place and 14th place, the polling differential is negligible.

 "It's a roll of the dice," said Monmouth University polling director Patrick Murray. "It's going to come down to the vagaries of how independent pollsters round off their results — we're talking tenths of decimal points. It could come down to the five or six people who didn't pick up their phones for a national survey and the five or six people who did."