Yesterday, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high. And the Dow just hit a new record close as well. If you haven't sold yet, dear reader, this may be one of the best times ever to do so.

We welcome new readers with a simple insight: Markets are contrary, pernicious, and downright untrustworthy. Just when the mob begins to bawl most loudly for stocks… the market sets its trap.

Longtime Diary sufferers will be quick to straighten out the record. We've warned that stocks have reached a peak several times over the last four years. Each time, we thought we saw the writing on the wall… and each time, we were mistaken. We raised our Crash Alert flag.

But the poor ol' Black and Blue just fluttered in the wind, as stock prices rose ever higher. Eventually, it became so tattered, we took pity on it, folded it up, and put it away.

In the interest of full disclosure, as well as reputation hygiene, we saw a bear market coming in 1999 and 2007, too. We were right then. But lately, we've either been dead wrong… or dead early.