Germany was the first country in the world to experience a surplus of deaths. Every year since 1972, fewer people were born there than died. Before 1990, this also started happening in Hungary (1982) and the Czech Republic (1986). By the middle of the current century, however, all countries in Europe, with the exception of Norway and Sweden, are expected to see natural natural population growth turn negative. Populous countries such as Brazil and China are also projected to experience this change before 2050.

Past 2100, most naturally growing countries will be found in Africa, with some also persisting on the Arabian Peninsula, in Oceania and in Central Asia. Sweden is the only European country expected to keep up natural population growth past that date.