Eight markers to consider:

CONSUMER SENTIMENT (per U. of Michigan survey) fell to the second-lowest reading ever recorded since 1952; plunged 11% to a prelim reading of 50.8; 73 percent of consumers now "financially stressed" [Source: CNBC poll]

STAGFLATION EVOLVED into something worse; 2/3 of Americans are "behind on savings goals", nearly half (47%) gave up on their targets

SAVINGS DWINDLING 60+ percent of U.S. adults have withdrawn money since end 2024; funding sudden expenses (48%), everyday necessities (36%)

DELINQUENT CREDIT CARD accounts (90+ days past due) at a 12 year high (Source: FRB of Philadelphia); in Canada, total consumer debt hit a historic high of $2.5 tn; outstanding credit balances +4.5% YoY [Source: TransUnion]

OVER FIVE MILLION (USA) student loan borrowers skipped payments in the last year; four million more poised to do the same; 42.7 mn student borrowers owe a total $1.6 tn. These loans are the biggest (non-performing?) "asset" on USA government B/S. Action is about to be taken on May 5, 2025 [comment]

PLUNGING CONSUMER (FICO) CREDIT scores took biggest hit since the GFC; average FICO score dropped to 715 from 717 (Source: FICO); in Canada, 760 (April 2024), down from 762 (April 2023). Unreported for 2025 YTD

CUTBACKS IN DISCRETIONARY spend at restaurants, hair salons and shopping malls; 24pc of Americans dine out less often, [Source: Dataessential]. HBC (Hudson's Bay, SFA, Lord & Taylor) just joined the ranks of The Limited, Loehmann's, in semi-liquidation; even auctioning off artwork [comment]

HOUSING "BANK" FROZEN as inventory builds + failed closings; some consumers can't extract any home equity to buttress finances [comment]

INFLATIONARY DEPRESSION looms if policymakers do not act. FRB Survey of Consumer Expectations sees 2026 inflation at 3.6%, (+.5% from February  highest since October 2023. Also expect a higher (2026) unemployment rate surged to 44% (+4.6 pp highest since 2020). Debt jubilee? Time is now.