At one level, Iran plainly "won." Trump had wanted to be regaled with a reality-TV style, splendid "Victory." Sunday's attack on the three nuclear sites indeed was loudly proclaimed by Trump and Hegseth as such – having "obliterated" Iran's nuclear enrichment programme, they claimed. "Destroyed it completely," they insist.

Only … it didn't: The strike caused superficial surface damage, perhaps. And seemingly was co-ordinated in advance with Iran via intermediaries to be a "once and done" affair. This is a habitual Trump pattern (advance co-ordination). It was the mode in Syria, Yemen and even with Trump's assassination of Qasem Soleimani – all intended to give Trump a quick media "victory."

The so-called "ceasefire" that rapidly followed the US strikes – albeit not without some hiccoughs – was a hastily assembled "cessation of hostilities" (and no ceasefire – as no terms were agreed). It was a "stop-gap." What this means is that the negotiating impasse between Iran and Witkoff remains unresolved.