He's one of the most consistent pollsters in the country and one of the few who actually understands how voters think, not how consultants wish they thought. So when Baris looked into what happened in the recent Virginia and New Jersey elections, he found something Republicans everywhere should pay attention to.

Yes, these races were in blue states. Yes, nobody expected a red wave. But the real story wasn't the loss. It was the drop-off… a massive chunk of GOP voters who simply stayed home. Baris wanted to know why, so he went directly to the data and the voters.

And what he found wasn't the usual stuff.

It wasn't the economy.

It wasn't immigration.

It wasn't a crime.

It was something much weirder.

GOP voters were demoralized because they felt Trump was getting distracted by foreign policy, while things at home still felt rough. Add the sloppy handling of the Epstein moment, where Trump called it a "Dem hoax," then had to clarify he didn't mean the scandal itself was fake, and voters felt brushed off on an issue they care about. The shutdown didn't help either. Even though Dems were responsible, the entire mess sucked up oxygen and drained everyone's patience.

Put together, it created a mood.

A slump.

A big ol' downer vibe.

Voters were frustrated, tired, and not feeling like the issues that hit their families – the economy, inflation, and safety – were front and center. And when the base feels that way, they don't show up. That's exactly what Baris warned about.

And now, with President Trump's polls slumping, Baris is doing a very well-meaning "I told you so."

Richard Baris:

Five months after our early warning poll, it's becoming mainstream knowledge the mishandling of the #EpsteinFiles played a bigger role in the decline of Trump's approval than some wanted to believe.

We're now learning it's role in key demos not voting.

I tried, CK. I did.