After US and Israeli missiles struck Iran's nuclear sites in June 2025, Tehran responded with a limited attack on the American airbase in Qatar. Five years before that, a US drone strike against Qasem Soleimani, head of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, was followed by an attack on two American bases in Iraq shortly thereafter.

Expect none of that restraint by Iran's leaders following the latest US and Israeli military operation currently playing out in the Gulf nation.

In the early hours of February 28, 2026, hundreds of missiles struck multiple sites in Iran. Part of "Operation Epic Fury," as the US Department of Defense has called it, the strikes follow months of US military buildup in the region.

But they also come after apparent diplomatic efforts, in the shape of a series of nuclear talks in Oman and Geneva aimed at a peaceful resolution.

Any such deal is surely now completely off the table. In scale and scope, the US and Israel attack goes far beyond any previous strikes on the Gulf nation.

In response, Iran has said it will use "crushing" force. As an expert on Middle East affairs and a former senior official at the National Security Council during the first Trump administration, I believe the calculus both in Washington and more so in Tehran is very different from earlier confrontations.

Iran's leaders almost certainly see this as an existential threat, given President Donald Trump's statement and the military campaign already underway. And there appears to be no obvious off-ramp to avoid further escalation.

What we should expect now is a response from Tehran that utilizes all of its capabilities – even though they have been significantly degraded. And that should be a worry for all nations in the region and beyond.

Apparent aims of the US operation

It is important to note that we are in the early stages of this conflict – much is unknown.

As of February 28, it is unclear who has been killed among Iran's leadership and to what extent Iran's ballistic missile capabilities have been degraded. The fact that ballistic missiles have been launched at regional states that host US military bases suggests that, at a minimum, Iran's military capabilities have not been entirely wiped out.

Iran fired over 600 missiles against Israel last June during their 12-day war, but media reporting and Iranian statements over the past month suggested that Iran managed to replenish some of its missile inventory, which it is now using.