Details are sketchy, but the Viva refinery in Corio, Geelong Victoria is reportedly on fire in a big way. This is (or was) one of Australia's last two remaining oil refineries supplying 10% of domestic needs. Reports on X and Reddit claim the fire started with an explosion at about 11pm in Victoria, with "flames 100ft high". The glow is visible from Melbourne. Others report the fire started in the "gas separator unit". with some saying they heard, as many as 7 or 8 explosions. The Victorian Fire Dept has issued a watch and act and stay indoors for people in Geelong. As many as 16 fire units are attending a "Building Fire" on Refinery Rd, Corio which (at this time) is not yet under control.

What are the odds? Speculation is rife: "I'm sure it's just a coincidence" says every second person.

We're praying the staff are somehow OK, and someone has sent the SAS to guard our other refinery.

But we'll be fine, right? As our energy Minister Chris Blackout Bowen says: "No war can impede the flow of sun to Australia" (only nighttime and clouds can do that…).

We're living in a bubble downunder, and it may have just popped. The ships that have been bringing our oil are mostly ones that were already on the water before the war in Iran broke out. No one is 100% sure what happens next. We are cruising barely a few weeks from potential disaster. This is not a loss of 10% in normal times, it's potentially a loss of 10% on top of a crisis. It may mean some of the ships we are counting on will not be able to unload and get processed anywhere in Australia. The other refinery, Lytton in Queensland, may be booked at full capacity and it's not clear whether there will still be storage available in Geelong.