Starting a big war in the Middle East is much easier than stopping it. This is the lesson President Trump is now learning.

After one month of dropping bombs and launching missiles at Iran, Trump has called for a time out. A proposed one-month ceasefire. He even put a 15-point peace plan on the table. It was delivered via intermediaries in Pakistan.

The proposal included a comprehensive off-ramp to address everything from nuclear disarmament and missile limits to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran quickly put a match to it and countered with five conditions of its own – including demands for reparations.

It was but one month ago when Operation Epic Fury kicked off. What was intended to be a brief operation of destruction rained down on Iran, turned into something much greater.

The initial shock and awe adeptly targeted high-level leadership and missile infrastructure. But the operation quickly spiraled into a larger war of attrition that physically severed the world's most vital energy artery – the Strait of Hormuz.

The initial success was overshadowed by a grim, structural reality. Market volatility is one thing. Physical depletion of global resource reserves, which puts a big squeeze on every major economy, is entirely another.

Perhaps some limited shipping will be allowed to traverse the Strait as the war rages on. One can only hope. Because if it remains closed for another 30 days, the emergency oil and gas reserves held by nations like Japan and Germany will stop flowing. In fact, hundreds of gas stations have already run dry across Australia.

One more month of this will have dramatic consequences. Namely, it will result in the forced deindustrialization of energy-dependent economies as critical links in the world's just-in-time supply chain breakdown.

When shipping containers stack up in idle ports and fertilizer plants go dark, the survival of economies across the globe are at risk.

Physical Shortages

Month one, by and large, was nothing. The impacts to the average person were mainly limited to sticker shock at the gas pump. Brent crude briefly spiked above $120 a barrel, and everyone's 401(k) took a modest nosedive.

Month two, however, is when things really start to get serious. That's when higher prices are met with physical shortages. The next 30 days are the real make or break moment for the global economy.

In March, the world survived on oil and gas that was already in the pipes and the tanks. The U.S. and its allies tapped into strategic reserves to help buffer the price spikes. But those reserves are a very short-term solution.

Around 20 percent of the world's Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is currently trapped behind the Strait. QatarEnergy, the world's LNG heavyweight, has had to declare force majeure on exports.