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News Link • Future Predictions

Mathematical Cycles Predict Political Instability By 2020

•, Kurzweil

To Peter Turchin, who studies population dynamics at the University of Connecticut in Storrs, the appearance of three peaks of political instability at roughly 50-year intervals starting with the U.S. Civil War is not a coincidence. For the past 15 years, Turchin has been taking the mathematical techniques that once allowed him to track predator-prey cycles in forest ecosystems, and applying them to human history.

He has analyzed historical records on economic activity, demographic trends and outbursts of violence in the United States, and has come to the conclusion that a new wave of internal strife is already on its way. The peak should occur in about 2020, he says, and will probably be at least as high as the one in around 1970. “I hope it won’t be as bad as 1870,” he adds.

1 Comments in Response to

Comment by Powell Gammill
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Really.  Wow.  We have to wait days to weeks for election results as electronically counted ballots give us too close to call ties.  We see independents starting to outnumber Rs & Ds.  We see the will of the voter mean everything when govt. wants some issue mandated at the polls,   and absolutely nothing when voters decide it against the govt. position.  We see it in ever increasing registration and voting percentages reported while evidence mounts that in fact both registrations and people actually casting ballots is declining.  We see it in the govt. elections process creating and violently defending easily cheatable voting process like mail in ballots or optically counted votes, and when caught cheating violently dealing with the accusers.  We see it when it becomes obvious counting the votes is unimportant---getting people to overtly participate in the process or creating the inability to cast doubt of govt. claims of participating in the process is the important thing.

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