Although a noisy series, the December weakness in pending home sales is an unfavorable indicator for near-term existing home sales, and follows disappointing new home sales already released for the month.
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However, a glance at the chart below confirms this is total bullshit. As Goldman Sachs admits "broad-based declines by region suggest that colder-than-average weather was likely not the primary driver."
Pending home sales dropped 8.7% in December (vs. consensus -0.3%), the largest decline since the expiration of the first-time homebuyer tax credit in 2010. Sales declined in the Northeast (-10.3%), West (-9.8%), South (-8.8%), and Midwest (-6.8%).
The broad-based declines by region suggest that colder-than-average weather was likely not the primary driver, given slightly warmer-than-average temperatures on the Pacific coast in December.
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