The irony is that as we also explained yesterday, the Crimea scenario is fully in play once more. Confirming precisely that was news from News of Donbass which reported moments ago that in the aftermath of the new certain May 11 referendum, a week later east Ukraine will formalize the Russia annexation process and on May 18 there will be a “second round of the referendum where you will be asked to support accession to the Donestk region of Russia.”
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Yesterday we correctly predicted that while the world is distracted by this and that, the next real short-term catalyst is the east Ukraine referendum vote on Sunday, whose results would be available as soon as May 11, indicating that, almost with 100% certainty, the Ukraine region would vote to become independent.
This was promptly followed by a skillful diplomatic gambit by Putin who, knowing full well Donetsk would just say no, suggested the referendum be postponed thus giving himself cover when the western press attacked him for using Crimean tactics for the second time in two months. This was confirmed this morning when the Donetsk “separatists” indeed politely thanked Putin for his concern, but decided to proceed with this weekend’s referendum anyway.
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