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News Link • Economy - International

The Simple Reason Treasury Yields Are Going Lower: Half A Trillion More Demand Than Supply


Back in April 2013, when looking at the dynamics of global treasury supply and demand (and just before the TBAC started complaining loudly about a wholesale shortage of quality collateral), we made the simple observation that between the (pre-tapering) Fed and the BOJ, there would be a massive $660 billion shortfall in supply as just under $1 trillion in TSY issuance between the US and Japan would have to be soaked up $1.7 trillion in demand just by the two central banks.

A year later, bonds yields continue to defy conventional explanation, with ongoing demand for "high quality paper" pushing yields well below where 100% of the consensus said they would be this time of the year, and in this cycle of the so-called recovery, because for the improving economy thesis to hold, the 10Y should have been well over 3% by now. It isn't.

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