
IPFS News Link • Economy - International
Currency risk
• http://www.economist.com-EuropeANXIETY at the Swiss National Bank's surprise decision today to drop its peg against the euro was nowhere more evident than in central Europe. The Swiss franc soared against all the region's currencies, including the euro, the Hungarian forint and especially the Polish zloty, and stock exchanges in Poland (pictured) and Hungary dropped sharply. During the global economic crisis, similar swings plunged many borrowers in the region into deep water: they had gorged on low-interest loans (especially mortgages) denominated in Swiss francs, only to find themselves unable to meet payments when the franc's value rose sharply in 2009. But despite the worried reactions on the bourses, the region is much better prepared for exchange-rate swings today than it was six years ago. The biggest impact of the soaring franc could be political, chiefly in Poland, which is preparing for parliamentary elections this autumn.
The most radical steps to address the Swiss-franc mortgage problem have been taken in Hungary, which also suffered the most severe problems in 2009. Viktor Orban, the prime minister, came to power in 2010 in part on a promise to alleviate the pain felt by millions of Hungarian households trapped with suddenly unaffordable mortgages. The Hungarian government has since forced banks holding forex mortgages, most of them foreign-owned, to convert them into forints at favourable rates. The final phase of that programme takes place this year, and means Hungary has largely been spared from most of the shock caused by the SNB. "The plans by the Hungarian government to convert Swiss franc loans couldn't have happened at a better time," says Nick Spiro of Spiro Sovereign Strategy, a credit risk consultancy.