
IPFS News Link • Economy - International
Futures Rise, Drop, Then Rise Again In Illiquid Session After China Promises More Stimulus
• http://www.zerohedge.comIt has been a seesaw session with U.S. stock index futures following their dramatic buying burst in the last half hour of market trading yesterday by first rising, then falling, then rising again alongside European equities both driven almost tick for tick with even the smallest move in the carry trade of choice, the USDJPY, even as Asian shares trade near intraday highs after China's leaders signaled they will take further steps to support growth, including widening the fiscal deficit and stimulating the housing market, to put a floor under the economy's slowdown according to statements released at the end of the government's Central
Economic Work Conference by the official Xinhua News Agency on Monday.
Monetary policy must be more "flexible" and fiscal policy more "forceful" as leaders create "appropriate monetary conditions for structural reforms" adding that the fiscal deficit ratio should be raised gradually, as reported by Bloomberg.
While the leadership also endorsed structural reforms and reining in China's increasing reliance on credit, the macroeconomic policy statements indicated concern about letting the economy's expansion slow too much.
"Although the overall cyclical policy stance is set to be 'steady', the tone on fiscal, monetary and other policies was modestly dovish," economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. led by Song Yu wrote in a note. "The more positive cyclical policy tone from this conference makes us somewhat more comfortable with our forecast of only a moderate growth deceleration in 2016."
Of course, this latest conference promising broad reform, is nothing new and reminds us of the Politburo's 2013 pledge to cut debt by CNY1 trillion only to unleash a 50% debt/GDP expansion in the next 2 years. And while the market admires China's best intentions, it too has learned to ignore them.
Elsewhere, the dollar and copper both fall while gold, silver, metals, most food commodities gain. WTI gains outpace Brent to narrow spread between oil benchmarks to smallest since January.
For now, however, keep an eye on the USDJPY and the all important 121 line, which as always must be defended to prevent a further drop in carry-trade linked equities. If the USDJPY is unable to find a support, this post's title need to add another "... Then Fall Again."
Here is a snapshot of global markets:
S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2017
Stoxx 600 up 0.2% to 358
FTSE 100 up 0.3% to 6051
DAX down 0.3% to 10465
German 10Yr yield up 2bps to 0.57%
Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.59%
Spanish 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.78%
MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.4% to 130
Nikkei 225 down 0.2% to 18887
Hang Seng up 0.2% to 21830
Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3652
S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 5117
US 10-yr yield up less than 1bp to 2.19%
Dollar Index down 0.05% to 98.31
WTI Crude futures up 0.7% to $36.05
Brent Futures up 0.1% to $36.39
Gold spot up less than 0.1% to $1,078
Silver spot up 0.2% to $14.28