The Most Important Person in 2016 ... Forget the presidential candidates – Fed Chair Janet Yellen is who you need to watch ... – US News

Dominant Social Theme: The most important person in the world ...

Free-Market Analysis: The great debate has started and will continue to keep us focused on the Fed until the next move. We will be reminded over and over again of the phony importance of one or two "power players" in determining the fate of the largest economy in the world.

The potential outcomes for the US economy in 2015 were endlessly debated but now that the Fed has actually hiked rates, the debate has taken on yet more significance.

Even though the outcomes are simple enough, the results along with what's coming next will be endlessly debated. US News is giving us a sample of that in this article.

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But for all the hoopla and breathless coverage that's sure to come, 2016's most important political player won't be on the campaign trail. She'll be heading up America's central bank.

When the Federal Reserve, led by Chair Janet Yellen, raised interest rates recently for the first time in nearly a decade – ending seven years of rates essentially sitting at zero – economy-watchers divided into two camps ...

The dispute boils down to which should be of greater concern: the specter of easy money sparking inflation as the economy recovers or the threat of rate hikes choking growth.

Through its manipulation of the federal funds rate (which is the rate at which banks lend to each other) and its other tools, the Fed expands or contracts the money supply in an effort to achieve its so-called "dual mandate" of full employment and low inflation.

The article drones on like this, foretelling what is to come: Endless articles in 2016 focused on the sterile interest rate debate. The larger issue, of course, is whether or not the economy is doing "well."

If the perception is that the Great Recession is vanquished, then the political debate may favor the Democrats in upcoming elections. If not, it may favor Republicans. And that, too, will be an endless, droning debate, replete with phony statistics and deeply questionable conclusions.

David Stockman has no difficulty taking a position on the next leg of the business cycle. In his recent article, "Now Comes The Great Unwind—How Evaporating Commodity Wealth Will Slam The Casino," he predicts that predictions of an economic recovery are greatly overblown.

Presciently, he focuses the article, to begin with, on the Chinese economy. Today, as of this writing, Chinese stocks have just dropped some seven percent, causing a shutdown of trading and a knock-off effect in Europe.