But sentiment can change very quickly and since the year end the Chinese market is down 14%, the S&P down 6% and most global markets down 6-10%.

Most investors had been hoping that the investment Shangri-La would continue for another year? Little do they realise that current values in no way reflects real values or risk. As we know, markets can remain irrational for a very long time. The risks that one day will bring the world economy down have been with us for quite a few years. In 2007-9 world financial markets were on the verge of collapse but a Central Bank programme of money printing and guarantees amounting to $25 trillion kicked the can down the road yet another time. It is too early to tell if the very strong falls in world stock markets so far in 2016 are the beginning of the biggest bear market since 1929. But is is not unlikely that this is the start of a bear market which will see falls of up to 90% just like the Dow in 1929-32. Fundamentals today are considerably worse than at the beginning of the Great Depression.