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IPFS News Link • Politics

Top Pollster Would Rather Lose His Business Than Pick Trump to Win

• http://www.thedailybell.com

On ABC's "Good Morning America," FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver predicted that Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election against Donald Trump. Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning, compared with Trump's 20 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight's forecast.  -ABC

Nate Silver is back at it, predicting a Trump defeat. The most famous pollster in America was wrong about Trump numerous times during Trump's rise to the GOP nomination.

Each time, Silver would predict that Trump was about to fade. But instead Trump would surge.

You would think he'd have learned. Instead, on ABC, he said this:

"We're at halftime of the election right now," Silver said. "She's taking a 7-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime. There's a lot of football left to be played. She's ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll." 

Does Silver really believe what he's predicting?

Certainly he's been successful in the past. In 2008 he correctly picked the presidential winner in 49 and in 2012 he picked all 50 correctly.

But  Trump is touching a nerve that other modern presidential candidates missed.

And Silver seems to have missed this.

Trump, a nationalist or populist, preaches a message of freedom and prosperity.

This is anathema to corporatists like Silver who seem to believe that government should be in control and that prosperity is not necessary when government can hand out the necessary checks.

In fact, according to Rasmussen, Trump surged in the polls not long after Silver made yet another incorrect prediction. Now, for the first time, Trump leads Hillary nationwide.

After trailing Hillary Clinton by five points for the prior two weeks, Donald Trump has now taken a four-point lead.  The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 43% of the vote, while Clinton earns 39%. Twelve percent (12%) still like another candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

So Silver was wrong again and in fact has never been right.


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