IPFS News Link • Politics
Live Presidential Forecast
• http://www.nytimes.comDonald J. Trump has won the presidency. Below, our estimates of three key indicators:
Donald J. Trump has won the presidency. Below, our estimates of three key indicators:
Chance of Winning Presidency
>95%Trump
Forecast
Very likelylikelyleaningTossupVery likelylikelyleaning
Popular vote margin
Clinton +0.6
Forecast, in pct. points
D+11D+10D+9D+8D+7D+6D+5D+4D+3D+2D+1R+1R+2R+3R+4R+5R+6R+7R+8R+9R+10R+11Obama '12Obama '08
Electoral votes
306Trump
Forecast
280280300300320320340340360360380380400400420420440440460460480480500500520520Obama '08Obama '12
The projections for each state are based on the votes reported so far and how those places have voted in previous elections.
We're showing the closest states by default. Show all states
Estimated vote margin
Best guess
5%
50% of outcomes
95%
233
305
New Mexico | 100% | Clinton +8.3 | Clinton +8.3 | ? WON | ||
Virginia | >95% | Clinton +4.8 | Clinton +4.9 | ? WON | ||
Colorado | 91% | Clinton +2.1 | Clinton +3.9 | ? WON | ||
Maine | 92% | Clinton +3.0 | Clinton +2.5 | ? WON | ||
Nevada | >95% | Clinton +2.4 | Clinton +2.4 | ? WON | ||
Minnesota | 100% | Clinton +1.5 | Clinton +1.5 | >95% | ||
New Hampshire | >95% | Clinton +0.3 | Clinton +0.2 | 67% | ||
Michigan | >95% | Trump +0.3 | Trump +0.2 | 78% | ||
Wisconsin | >95% | Trump +0.9 | Trump +0.9 | ? WON | ||
Pennsylvania | >95% | Trump +1.1 | Trump +1.0 | ? WON | ||
Florida | 100% | Trump +1.4 | Trump +1.4 | ? WON | ||
North Carolina | 100% | Trump +3.8 | Trump +3.8 | ? WON | ||
Arizona | 91% | Trump +4.1 | Trump +4.0 | >95% | ||
Georgia | 100% | Trump +5.8 | Trump +5.8 | ? WON | ||
Ohio | 100% | Trump +8.5 | Trump +8.5 | ? WON |
Here's how our forecasts have changed:
Chance of Winning Presidency
0%20%40%60%80%100%50%Race Called<5% Clinton>95% Trump6:00 PM7:00 PM8:00 PM9:00 PM10:00 PM11:00 PM12:00 AM1:00 AM2:00 AM3:00 AM4:00 AM5:00 AM6:00 AM7:00 AM8:00 AM