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IPFS News Link • Politics

Live Presidential Forecast

• http://www.nytimes.com

Donald J. Trump has won the presidency. Below, our estimates of three key indicators:

Rep.

Donald J. Trump has won the presidency. Below, our estimates of three key indicators:

Chance of Winning Presidency

>95%Trump

Forecast

Very likelylikelyleaningTossupVery likelylikelyleaning

Popular vote margin

Clinton +0.6

Forecast, in pct. points

D+11D+10D+9D+8D+7D+6D+5D+4D+3D+2D+1R+1R+2R+3R+4R+5R+6R+7R+8R+9R+10R+11Obama '12Obama '08

Electoral votes

306Trump

Forecast

280280300300320320340340360360380380400400420420440440460460480480500500520520Obama '08Obama '12

The projections for each state are based on the votes reported so far and how those places have voted in previous elections.

We're showing the closest states by default. Show all states

Estimated vote margin

Best guess

5%

50% of outcomes

95%

233

305

State Est. pct. of votes Reported margin NYT projection NYT win prob.

-1%

Even

+1%

+2%

+3%

+4%

+5%

+6%

+7%

+8%

+9%

 
New Mexico 100% Clinton +8.3 Clinton +8.3 ? WON    
Virginia >95% Clinton +4.8 Clinton +4.9 ? WON    
Colorado 91% Clinton +2.1 Clinton +3.9 ? WON    
Maine 92% Clinton +3.0 Clinton +2.5 ? WON    
Nevada >95% Clinton +2.4 Clinton +2.4 ? WON    
Minnesota 100% Clinton +1.5 Clinton +1.5 >95%    
New Hampshire >95% Clinton +0.3 Clinton +0.2 67%    
Michigan >95% Trump +0.3 Trump +0.2 78%    
Wisconsin >95% Trump +0.9 Trump +0.9 ? WON    
Pennsylvania >95% Trump +1.1 Trump +1.0 ? WON    
Florida 100% Trump +1.4 Trump +1.4 ? WON    
North Carolina 100% Trump +3.8 Trump +3.8 ? WON    
Arizona 91% Trump +4.1 Trump +4.0 >95%    
Georgia 100% Trump +5.8 Trump +5.8 ? WON    
Ohio 100% Trump +8.5 Trump +8.5 ? WON    

Here's how our forecasts have changed:

Chance of Winning Presidency

0%20%40%60%80%100%50%Race Called<5% Clinton>95% Trump6:00 PM7:00 PM8:00 PM9:00 PM10:00 PM11:00 PM12:00 AM1:00 AM2:00 AM3:00 AM4:00 AM5:00 AM6:00 AM7:00 AM8:00 AM

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