We seem engaged in an all-out civil war to determine where to put the deckchairs on this Titanic of a country. Credibility is shot. The UK is holed below the waterline. This ship is sinking. All is lost.. all is lost..
It's difficult to resist a cataclysm of clichés this morning... But, I'm buying dollars and switching out Gilts for Treasuries.
The reality is the UK faces its greatest ever economic crisis. Q2 GDP is going to fall by 25% plus. There will be no V shape recovery. We are going to fail badly. The treasury is wrestling with the implications of Project Birch – the plans to bail-out the failing large UK companies critical to the economy. Company balance sheets across the country are being distorted by increasing debt – the only way to pay down will be to cut costs. Retail sales are collapsing. Gilts are at negative yields. Government borrowing in April exceeded £62 bln as expenditure rose 54% (compared to April 2019), while tax revenues tumbled 35%. Unemployment is going to explode. Companies across the nation are going bust at a record rate. Social deprivation is going to go through the roof.