Will the 10-year yield fall back down into the long-term channel?

Yields on the 10-year Treasury note have spiked through the top line of a downward trend channel tracing back to the mid-1980s, with surging inflation and the Federal Reserve's reaction to it sparking questions over whether the long-term trend will imminently end, according to a research note from Deutsche Bank.

"Clearly such a channel can't go on forever unless you're of the opinion that we will consistently see negative nominal US yields in the latter part of this decade," Jim Reid, head of thematic research at Deutsche Bank, said in an emailed note Monday that illustrated the downward trend. "So the near 40-year trendline will almost certainly have to end in the next few years regardless, but the recent spike in yields raises the prospect of it doing so imminently."