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IPFS News Link • Economy - Economics USA

Unprecedented Warning About Leaping From The Frying Pan

• https://www.zerohedge.com, by Jeffrey Snider

The headline above 9 percent (annual) for the first time in a very long time, being the highest again in more than forty years primarily due to the usual suspects food and energy (responsible for more than half of the increase).

From that perspective, anyone can understand the politics of the situation. The average American has to eat, and will likely fill up their automobile (a lot of them trucks and SUVs) regularly.

Mainstream media and politics demand your attention focus on the Federal Reserve and rate hikes (QT thrown in). However, there's nothing that moving an antiquated money market rate around is going to do about gasoline supply or vegetables and meat. Officials have tried to sell the public—and the markets—on a Phillips Curve version of consumer prices so as to sell rate hikes by proxy as a plausible solution.

This is where market pricing and positioning tells us something very important about the current situation as well as how it is very likely to be resolved. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its CPI report Wednesday morning, initially the entire bond market sold off rather dramatically as any close observer would have expected.

Rates at both the front end of each curve along with those at the outer maturities surged together. Those politics behind a now-even-higher CPI demand the Fed increase its benchmark interest rates that much more attempting to assuage public anger, to appear as if the government is doing something, and going to be doing a lot more, to "fight inflation."

Then something awful happened. Around 10:10 a.m. EDT, long end rates plummeted. Yes, they fell sharply while those at front remained as high as they had been.