We are using the summit as an opportunity to publish several articles on this issue of the century. In this first article, we describe the adverse geopolitical environment in which this organisation is developing.

I would like to preface this with the following: Reliable geopolitical statements are based on facts. As the geopolitical facts change almost daily, this fact makes it difficult or impossible to produce analyses that will stand the test of time.

Several key geopolitical parameters are either completely in flux or will not have been decided at the time of the BRICS summit. I consider the following parameters to be crucial for medium-term geopolitical developments: (1) war in the Middle East; (2) war in Ukraine; (3) interest rate developments and the behaviour of the Fed until the end of this year as an indicator of the instability of Western financial markets with the inevitable consequences for the global economy; (4) US presidential elections.

For China and Russia, which play a leading role in BRICS – Russia currently holds the chair – the following questions arise: Should BRICS accept few, no or many new members? Candidates are lining up, but some are under enormous pressure from the US to avoid joining BRICS. Should a new payment mechanism independent of the US dollar be introduced now, further upsetting the balance in already unstable financial markets? Such decisions, or even the mere communication of them, have the potential to significantly alter the entire geopolitical situation within hours – positively or negatively, depending on the observer's point of view.

This article can therefore be no more than a transcription of thoughts on significant geopolitical developments that are currently taking place simultaneously and unpredictably. A full assessment is impossible. Many factors cannot be reliably assessed – such as developments in Africa, Asia and South America.

The feigned disinterest of the West

For a long time, the Western media maintained an ironclad silence on the subject of BRICS. A glimmer of interest appeared when Turkey expressed interest in joining BRICS. Now there is radio silence again. Alternative media are outdoing each other with predictions that BRICS will change the world tomorrow. The Russian media are holding back in this fireworks of jubilation. But to interpret the silence of the Western media as a lack of interest in BRICS would be more than naive.