While such a scenario is extreme, recognizing early warning signs can be crucial.

I have been monitoring the Cuba scenario. To me, that is the definition of a failed State holding to the remains of a collapsed country ruled by thugs terrified of a popular armed uprising. As our economy was destroyed by design, to control the population and crush the opposition among other goals, I believe I can describe the indications better than someone who never watched this happening.

In my research, a few events arose, as expected. Nevertheless, there were a couple of not-so-evident things that I'm going to point out.

By now, most of you reading this are very much aware of the loom and doom that destroyed the Venezuelan economy, and even these days, we feel panic every time the exchange rate with the USD changes.

For this past month (Oct. 2024), it went up 13%.

Enough to shake many people and make others begin thinking again about migrating.

Meanwhile, we have a single-digit "growing", and a 50% inflation…in USDs. (This year!)

It is awesome to see how, despite oil production increasing at a snail's pace, inflation seems to be looming again. It has been up almost 15% since 2022.

Here are some key indicators:

Economic Indicators

Hyperinflation: Uncontrolled inflation that rapidly erodes the value of currency. Shortly after the bus driver got into the Palace we started to see how our currency started this infamous process. This was so severe that it wiped off most of the wealth and living standards. We haven't been able to recover it ever since 2015 when it started. This is so self-explanatory that there is not too much need for further discussion.

Commodity Shortages: Severe shortages of essential goods like food, water, and fuel. At the present moment, supermarkets are overflowing with all kinds of products. Of course, getting the money to buy them is the hard part. Most of them come from Brazil, for the sake of money laundering schemes related to gold, and the fees charged by the concession of the narcotics trafficking routes control to the "producers". But can't prove it though.