As Donald Trump once again assumes the role of disruptor, China's leader Xi Jinping is casting himself as the keeper of world trade, globalization and economic cooperation.

In Peru on Friday (November 15), where national leaders were gathering for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum summit, Xi stressed that "dividing an interdependent world is going back in history" at a moment when the globe has "entered a new period of turbulence and change" causing "severe challenges."

Notably, Xi didn't point the finger directly at Trump. In his bilateral chat with outgoing US President Joe Biden a day later, Xi said "China is ready to work with the new US administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences for the benefit of the two peoples." 

And that's, frankly, exactly what one might expect of the leader of a giant, unbalanced economy staring down the barrel of 60% tariffs to take down the geopolitical temperature.

But what if Trump surprises and turns out to be a receptive and open counterpart to Xi, with the 60% tariff threat mere posturing to set the stage for a giant new bilateral trade deal?

There are myriad reasons to take seriously Trump's threats to make giant trade wars great again. In the runup to his election win on November 5, Trump talked early and often about making "retribution" the driving force of his presidency, which begins on January 20, 2025. Xi's economy has every reason to worry it will be the first stop on Trump's revenge tour.

However, the other side of the argument is worth exploring. Odds are high that Trump's tariffs are just "part of a bigger American strategy" and "part of a deal-making process that is going on in Trump's mind," says Neil Thomas, an analyst at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis. The goal, Thomas argues, is a "grand bargain" trade deal between the two biggest economies.