The introduction of FAB bombs, precision ammunition delivered from airplanes flying outside Ukrainian air defenses, broke the Ukrainian defense fortifications. Russian infantry, covered by ample artillery and with the help drones, infiltrated and overwhelmed Ukrainian lines. An ever increasing shortage of Ukrainian troops helped to increase the tempo of progress.

Diversion action, by Russia in the Kharkiv region and by Ukraine itself due to its attack into the Kursk region, further weakened the Ukrainian lines. A high number of casualties, unmotivated troops and a lack of heavy equipment have since diminished the Ukrainian forces. The downward spiral the Ukrainian army is currently in is likely to continue.

During the last six month the main frontline in south-east Ukraine has changed significantly.

July 1 2024

Six cities on the above July 1 map that are or were of military-logistic importance are marked with blue numbers.

The current map below is showing that these have either been captured or are in danger of immediate falling.

January 1 2025

No. 1 in the south is Velyka Novosilka. It is currently in an operational encirclement as all major roads leading to it are under Russian control. The only supply route left is through muddy fields to the northwest. Velyka Novosilka, the Ukrainian anchor of the southern front,  is likely to fall within the next two weeks.

No. 2 is Vuhledar (Ugledar) which was heavily fortified and well defended. It fell on October 1 after the Ukrainian leadership failed to support its battered defenders. As there were no further major settlements north of Vuhledar the frontline has since moved significantly further.

No. 3, Kurakhove, was the logistic center for the Ukrainian troops holding the fortified positions west of Donetsk city. It fell last night. The main danger for people living in Donetsk city has thus been removed. There is little westward of Kurakhove that can stop a rapid Russian movement beyond it.

No. 5, the city of Toretsk has dominated the Ukrainian positions along the north-west corner of the Donetsk People Republic (DPR). It has been reported that it also fell last night. No 6, Chasiv Yar, is about to follow. Yesterday Russian troops captured its main railroad station.