
News Link • California
L.A. County Inferno Expected To Top $250 Billion In Losses
• https://www.zerohedge.com, by Tyler DurdenResidents have been left in a state of shock, expressing frustration over what many see as possible negligence by county and/or state officials to mitigate the spread of the fires. The fires have become the region's worst fire disaster in history, with new damage and economic loss estimates between $250 billion and $275 billion, according to AccuWeather.
"These fast-moving, wind-driven infernos have created one of the costliest wildfire disasters in modern U.S. history," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said, adding, "Hurricane-force winds sent flames ripping through neighborhoods filled with multi-million-dollar homes. The devastation left behind is heartbreaking, and the economic toll is staggering."
AccuWeather predicted economic damages between $250 billion and $275 billion had eclipsed inflation-adjusted damages of $200 billion from Hurricane Katrina, according to JPM analysts.
"Nonetheless, we think the short-term effect on national GDP growth, employment, and inflation will be small, though this could change if the fires worsen substantially," the analysts said.
At the end of last week, AccuWeather estimated total economic damages to be around $150 billion, while analysts from other desks expected insured losses north of $20 billion.
The analysts noted, "That is a significant volume of insured losses, but it also suggests the majority of economic losses are uninsured."
The concentration of wealth in Pacific Palisades is high. According to IRS data analyzed by JPM, the average home in the area is valued at $3.5 million, yet more than half of tax returns report an adjusted gross income under $200,000. In Altadena, where the average home value exceeds $1.2 million, over 80% of tax filings show incomes below $200,000, with more than 60% reporting less than $100,000.
"Construction costs will be lower than home values though: in 2019, Redfin estimated that land value was 60% of the price of a home in Los Angeles, the highest share among any major metro area," the analysts pointed out.
As of Wednesday morning, many parts of Pacific Palisades, Malibu, Calabasas, Brentwood, and Encino remain under evacuation orders or warnings. At least 12,000 building structures have burned, displacing thousands of households.