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Territorial Concessions Might Precede A Ceasefire That Leads To New Ukrainian Elections

• https://www.zerohedge.com, by Andrew Korybko

Ukrainian law stipulates that they can't be conducted during times of marital law, ergo the need to first lift it. That won't happen without a ceasefire, however, but therein lies the problem since Russia's terms for such are unacceptable for Ukraine.

Putin said last June that Russia will freeze hostilities only after Ukraine withdraws from all the territory that his country claims as its own and declares that it no longer wants to join NATO. Negotiations can resume immediately afterwards, but he specified at the time that they'd have to be held with the parliamentary speaker instead of Zelensky, whose legal term expired at the end of May per Putin's reading of the Ukrainian Constitution. He then reiterated this position last week but added a twist.

According to him, Zelensky could still hypothetically participate in negotiations, but he'd be powerless to sign anything. This followed Zelensky claiming that October 2022's prohibition on talks with Russia applied to everyone but himself. He then told the Associated Press over the weekend around the same time as Kellogg's interview with Reuters that he's interested in resuming talks with Russia but doesn't think that it wants a ceasefire. Amidst these statements from Kellogg, Putin, and Zelensky were Trump's.

He claimed that "We're having very serious discussions (with Russia) about that war, trying to get it ended", but said that he hadn't yet talked to Putin about it, thus implying that talks are only taking place at the embassy level. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Rybakov confirmed on the same day that "there is no progress" on organizing those leaders' upcoming call. Nevertheless, their inevitable conversation will likely concern a ceasefire, and particularly the compromise that Trump hopes to broker.

This could see him proposing the following to Putin:

1) Ukraine withdraws from Kursk and Donbass, the latter of which is at the center of the territorial dispute with Russia, but stays where it's at everywhere else;

2) Neither side rescinds their territorial claims to the other;

3) a carrot-and-stick approach is applied towards Russia and Ukraine for ensuring compliance with the ceasefire;

4) Ukraine then holds its next elections; and

5) the new government enters into peace talks with Russia after assuming office.


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