New Homes for Sale by Stage of Construction

Total: 495,000. The most since December 2007.

Started Plus Completed: 389,000. The most since May 2008.

Under Construction: 274,000

Completed: 115,000. The most since August 2009.

Not Started: 106,000

Not started means vacant land. Started, and especially completed, represent speculative building.

New Home Sales Annualized vs Homes for Sale Detail

New home sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized totals. The stage of construction numbers are seasonally adjusted but not annualized.

New Homes for Sale as Percent of New Home Sales

Elevated for Sale Numbers

Total: 75 Percent

Under Construction or Complete: 59 percent

Completed: 18 percent

The above is a new chart I added just today.

Amusingly, in the middle of the Great Recession, there were more homes for sale than the annualized number of new home sales. That number includes homes not started.

Not started homes represent a land commitment, whereas started and completed homes represent heightened speculation.

Unfortunately, this data series only dates to 1999, but the current numbers appear very elevated compared to the data we do have.

This rates to pressure prices unless demand picks up.