He warns that investors are misreading the situation by ignoring deeper threats to the economy, such as the ongoing global move away from the US dollar and misguided government subsidies that risk driving personal debt even higher.

Peter opens the show with a skeptical look at the so-called win for the Trump administration in its standoff with China, pointing out that the underlying threat was never properly addressed:

Okay, well, we've had a pretty good relief rally in the stock markets over the last several days. Ever since we got a truce in the trade war, or maybe more appropriately a surrender than a truce, although that's not the way the Trump administration is promoting this so-called win. But when you strip off all of the jargon, that's basically what happened. I mean, Trump diffused the bomb, but it's a bomb that he set. And the fact that he diffused it has caused investors to enthusiastically buy stocks.

Peter sees the market's optimism as misplaced, arguing that the economic reality is far weaker than many are willing to acknowledge. He believes that the trade tensions may have eased, but only because the US quietly stepped back from its most aggressive tariffs:

The reality is they're expecting too much, because I think the economy is going to be a lot weaker. Yes, we're not going to have the worst case scenario. The 145% tariffs aren't going to stay in place, or even anything close to that on China. And I doubt the reciprocal tariffs that were unveiled on Liberation Day on the rest of the world are going to come back. I mean, it seems to me that what Trump is aiming for is about a 10% tariff on most countries, and maybe a little bit higher than that, on stuff coming in from China.