By Daniela Gonzalez

Dear readers,

Although I'm not an international analyst/geopolitics specialist nor do I want to be, once the attack started the first thought of my close group of friends and family was: how much fuel would we receive from Iran in the next months now? What will happen once the gasoline stops flowing in the stations?

The recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran's oil facilities have sent shockwaves through global energy markets.

We all know that.

But one of the most vulnerable dominoes in this geopolitical chain is my own country: Venezuela.

The situation which was already difficult is now facing a quick spiral downwards and we are right in the middle of it.

We are already teetering on the brink of fuel collapse due to our reliance on Iranian gasoline imports.

No matter what the "official" information is.

The reality is very different. Remember: the ties of the gang with the Iran regime are strong. (Activate the auto-translation please). A conflict in Iran means that their accounts and the interaction dynamics change completely.

We will examine and develop the following topics below.

– The direct impact of Israel-Iran tensions on Iran's oil exports.

– Venezuela's lifeline to Iranian fuel and the risks of disruption.

– Three scenarios for Venezuela's gasoline supply in 2024–2025, including the risks

– Strategic recommendations for global observers that could face high prices or fuel scarcity in the future.

1. Israel's Airstrikes and Iran's Oil Capacity

The Attack

In April/May 2024, Israel targeted Iran's key oil infrastructure, including both the Abadan Refinery (Iran's largest, producing ~400,000 bpd) and the Kharg Island Terminal (critical for exports).

The immediate consequences are a reduction in the