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Moldova: The Next Front in the West's Confrontation With Russia?
• by Ted Galen CarpenterBoth the European Union and Moscow also are accusing each other of illicit election meddling to put their respective Moldovan clients in power. In many respects, the lead up to this election is reminiscent of the tense atmosphere and inflammatory accusations of the 2023 vote for parliament and the 2024 presidential election that resulted in a disputed victory for pro-Western incumbent President Maia Sandu.
The situation also has the potential to become another prominent arena for the ongoing, dangerous geopolitical power struggle between the West and Russia. Moldova shares a 1,222-kilometer border with Ukraine and the Kremlin currently stations some 1,500 troops in Moldova's secessionist region of Transnistria. The U.S. government should, in this case, as in many others, stay out.
U.S. and European think tanks and news media outlets reliably parrot the allegations of Sandu and her supporters. The Atlantic Council's Aidan Stretch notes: "Moldova is raising the alarm over escalating Russian interference as the country approaches a crucial geopolitical crossroads. On September 28, Moldova's pro-Western government will face a parliamentary election amid widespread allegations of Kremlin cyberattacks, propaganda, and various other Russian attempts to influence the outcome of the vote. If pro-European parties lose their majority, Moldova's Western integration could stall."
Stretch continues:
The implications of an election victory for pro-Russian forces would extend far beyond Chisinau [Moldova's capital]. Moldova shares a long border with Ukraine, while the two countries are currently on a joint EU accession track. A Kremlin-friendly government in Moldova could potentially derail EU integration for both nations, while also creating a significant new security threat on Ukraine's southwestern frontier. The coming vote is therefore an important test of Russia's ability to reassert its influence and a potential landmark moment for the wider region.
In the short term, though, the East-West struggle is confined to the political arena. Sandu and her supporters in Europe and the United States are quick to highlight any evidence of Moscow's support, especially financial support, for friendly political factions. She recently accused Russia of spending "hundreds of millions of dollars to buy Moldova's election."
However, it is clear that both Washington and the European Union also have poured vast sums into Moldova to support "pro-democracy" groups – and they have done so for many years. Although Donald Trump's administration sharply cut projected funding for Moldova in the forthcoming US Agency for International Development (U.S. AID) budget, Washington had already given more than $2.5 billion since the country became independent. The figure for 2024 alone was $310 million. Between the launch of Russia's "special military operation" (Putin's label for his major invasion of Ukraine) in February 2022 and September 17, 2024, Washington allocated $949 million for Moldova. This largess was given to a country that has only 3.6 million people. It would be naïve to assume that such sums did not buy political influence and were not designed to do so.
The European Union also has given high priority to funding friendly political clients in Moldova and, unlike the Trump administration, it has continued to do so. At a summit meeting between Moldovan and EU leaders in July 2025, the EU agreed to the immediate release of 270 million Euros from a planned 1.9 billion long-term growth plan for Moldova. Such sums are not chump change, nor are they politically irrelevant. Another 18.9 million Euro aid influx took place in early September, barely three weeks before Moldova's election, was transparent interference in the country's domestic politics. EU expressions about Russia's alleged interference ring a bit hollow.
                
            
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    


