
News Link • Gold and Silver
Long Haul Gold
• https://www.activistpost.com, Bill Bonner, Tom DysMore and more investors are jumping on the Gold Express. MarketWatch:
Last week, something interesting happened on CNBC. Host Scott Wapner was interviewing Jeffrey Gundlach — they call him the Bond King. Wapner lobbed him a softball about portfolio allocation.
"Really? One quarter of one's portfolio in gold?"
"Yeah," Gundlach said. Then he called it insurance and predicted $4,000 by year-end.?
When the dealer starts betting against his own game, smart players head for the exit.
But where does this 'exit' lead? Today, we return to a key question: If we buy gold at today's prices, aren't we risking another Death Valley…a45-year period in which we gain nothing??
'Yes' is the answer. The risk is there. And if you will need your money in the next couple of years, you might want to think twice.?
But we count our wealth in gold. And even if it took a generation-long dip, we wouldn't rend our garments or tear our hair out. Because our real wealth would remain intact, undiminished. We would have exactly as much gold as we started with.
And we feel confident that we can depend on our public officials to make sure gold doesn't stay down for too long. They will eventually inflate away America's debt; what other choice do they have?
The Dow/Gold ratio went under 5 in 1974. In January 1980, it was 1.29. If we'd had our Dow/Gold Trading Strategy (DGTS) back then, it would have directed us to sell our gold in 1974 and buy stocks. The next eight years would have been rough; stock prices were steady, but inflation greatly reduced real values.
Even so, we should have taken it with good grace. We owned good companies making good money — that was the real value, not the prices quoted in the new, fake dollars. And so it was that we would have gone into the bull market beginning in 1982 with stocks, not gold. And our DGTS model would have kept us in stocks for at least the next 14 years, depending on where we set our stop loss, and multiplied our gold (our real wealth) by at least three times.