But the new Trump-Xi trade deal has sparked hope, with Beijing ramping up U.S. crop purchases once again. If sustained, this could signal that the worst of the farm-sector downturn is finally behind us.

American farmers finally received some clarity from equipment-maker John Deere, which said Wednesday morning in an earnings update that the bottom of the large agricultural cycle may materialize in 2026. 

"Looking ahead, we believe 2026 will mark the bottom of the large ag cycle," John May, chairman and CEO of John Deere, wrote in a statement. 

Deere's fiscal fourth-quarter outlook for 2026 highlights just how fragile the U.S. farm economy remains. It estimated fiscal-year net income between $4 and $4.75 billion, well below the $5.31 billion Bloomberg Consensus, sending shares down about 2% in premarket trading in New York. Deere shares are up 17% on the year, as of Tuesday's closing. 

Here's a snapshot of Deere's mixed quarter, beating estimates on several key lines while showing continued margin pressure across major segments (courtsey of Bloomberg): 

Headline Results

EPS: $3.93 (vs. $4.55 y/y), topping the $3.88 estimate

Net income: $1.07B, down 14% y/y but slightly above expectations

Total net sales & revenue: $12.39B, up 11% y/y

Production & Precision

Ag: Sales: $4.74B, up 10% y/y and ahead of estimates

Operating profit: $604M, down 8% y/y

Margin compression continues (12.7% vs. 15.3% y/y)

Small Ag & Turf:

Sales: $2.46B, up 6.5% y/y and stronger than expected

Operating profit collapsed to $25M (-89% y/y)

Margin plunged to 1% (vs. 10.1% y/y)

Construction & Forestry:

Sales: $3.38B, up a strong 27% y/y

Operating profit: $348M, up 6% y/y

Margins slipped to 10.3% from 12.3% y/y