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Currency Regime Change: Is Dollar Dominance Dead?

• https://www.zerohedge.com, by Tyler Durden

Money—like gold and silver—is the crystallized effort of real work and real scarcity. Currency, however, is its excitable younger cousin: useful for trade, but spoiled the moment rulers discover the printing press. Money is the idea; currency is the performance. One endures through dynasties, the other ages like milk whenever governments "manage" it too enthusiastically. As Master Kong might say: "He who thinks he is saving money, but saves only currency, will one day learn the difference the hard way." In short, money keeps its virtue; currency keeps asking us to believe it still has some.

You save money; you spend currency.

Across history, global monetary power has shifted with the rise and fall of empires. Ancient economies were anchored by precious-metal coins like Rome's denarius and China's tael, whose value stemmed from the metals themselves. The Renaissance ushered in the era of the florin and guilder, as European trade flourished on hard currency. By the 19th century, Britain's pound sterling dominated global finance, supported by industrial strength and naval supremacy. The 20th century crowned the U.S. dollar, institutionalized through Bretton Woods and later entrenched as the world's reserve currency, central to global trade, commodities, and payments. In every era, currency dominance has been less about the metal or paper—and more about the geopolitical and economic power standing behind it.

The United States holds only 5% of the world's people, yet somehow manages to inhale 25% of the world's consumption. As the Master might say, "When one household eats like five, the neighbors will surely notice." Americans burn through a quarter of global oil, nearly a third of the world's aluminum, almost a quarter of all coal, and a healthy share of copper. No wonder nations line up at America's gate, eager to trade—who wouldn't serve a customer with such an appetite? Europe, though more populous, spends with the restraint of a scholar-official counting his brushstrokes. The EU's collective consumer spending reached $9.6 trillion in 2023, which works out to about $21,300 per person—falling further in 2024. Meanwhile, the average American spends roughly $51,500, proving that while Europeans may savor life, Americans certainly buy it.China's middle class is rising steadily, like bamboo after spring rain, and may one day surpass America in size. But for now, the average Chinese consumer spends about $4,800 a year. Their population rivals Europe and the U.S. combined, but the wallet has yet to match the ambition. Even after adjusting for purchasing power, U.S. per-capita spending remains seven times higher. As Confucius might conclude: "Prosperity grows in its own time. But appetite—ah, that grows fastest of all."


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