October 28 Meeting Synopsis

90.7 percent chance of Fed standing pat

8.1 percent chance of a quarter-point hike

0.1 percent chance of a two quarter-point hikes

1.1 percent chance of a quarter-point cut

Rate Hike vs Cut Likelihood

The probability of any hike (quarter-point or two quarter-point) is 8.1% + 0.1% = 8.2%.

The probability of a cut (quarter-point) is 1.1%.

A hike is therefore 8.2 / 1.1 ≈ 7.45 times as likely as a cut.

That's one way of slanting the observation given the odds of the Fed doing nothing is 90.7 percent.

I captured CME Fedwatch weighted target probability 5 minutes before the meeting and again today.

Weighted Average CME Fed Target Rate Probabilities

Changing December 2026 Target Rate Odds

February 24: 3.07 percent

March 3: 3.15 percent

March 12: 3.45 percent

March 18: 3.42 percent

March 19: 3.64 percent

The March 18 numbers are about 5 minutes before the March FOMC meeting.

The March 19 numbers are 11:30 AM Mountain Time.

The Fed meeting and the press conference effectively put the expectation of a change by the Fed on hold for the entire rest of the year.