Market response: oil down, yields down, stocks up (but all off their kneejerk extremes as skepticism grows)

"The market woke up to some potentially good news," said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.

"But follow-through on any relief rally will likely require tangible follow-through on the geopolitical front. We're still living in a headline-driven market."

The prediction market odds of a ceasefire by April 30th surged above 65% initially but have faded since, remaining above 50%...

Source: Polymarket

"It is impossible to tell whether this signals genuine progress towards an off-ramp for the war, or Trump 'zig-zagging' to buy time and keep oil from breaking out towards $150," said Krishna Guha at Evercore.

"It should though offer at least a brief respite on rates – possibly more."