IPFS News Link • Economy - International
Iran war restores King Dollar's crown, for now
• https://asiatimes.com, by William PesekNews of currency troubles in Thailand has a way of raising blood pressure amongst even the most battle-tested Asian investors.
The baht's dubious honor of being Asia's worst-performing currency amid surging oil prices is making headlines and triggering more than a little PDST. It was Bangkok's devaluation in July 1997 that set in motion the Asian financial crisis. The baht's 6% drop in March has investors scrambling to connect the dots to where things are heading.
The threats, of course, come from abroad. As the US-Israeli war in Iran drags on, surging oil is becoming more of a feature than a bug. In Thailand's case, a heavy dependence on imported crude has traders betting on the implications of additional commodity swings and capital outflows.
Yet exacerbating that is the surging US dollar, which once again threatens to suffocate Asian currencies. This double whammy of risk has governments across the region scrambling to sandbag financial systems as best they can. Back in 1997, the rallying dollar also played an outsized role in the crisis.
That reckoning had its roots in the Federal Reserve's 1994-1995 tightening cycle. At the time, the Fed doubled short-term interest rates in just 12 months. That extreme tightening cycle, led by then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, tipped Mexico into crisis, helped bankrupt Orange County, California, and saw Wall Street bond giant Kidder, Peabody & Co. closing its doors. Then the Fed's rate hikes came for Asia.
By 1997, the resulting surge in the dollar made it impossible to maintain Asia's currency pegs. First, Thailand devalued. Next Indonesia. Then South Korea. All three went hat-in-hand to the International Monetary Fund and other agencies for giant bailouts totaling US$118 billion. Though neither sought bailouts, the turmoil also pushed Malaysia and the Philippines to the brink.
Since then, the emerging markets have been very sensitive to the specter of the Fed hiking rates. Case in point: the 2013 Fed "taper tantrum." Market jitters over mere hints that the Fed might be hitting the brakes prompted Morgan Stanley to publish a "fragile five" list on which no emerging economy wanted to be. The original group: Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey.
Now, a surging dollar is complicating Asia's development plans anew. History's greatest magnet is luring capital from every corner of the globe, hogging wealth needed to finance budget deficits, keep bond yields stable and support equity markets.




