A lot of people still seem to think that economic conditions will snap back to normal once the war ends, and that is because they don't understand the level of destruction that has already taken place. Even if the war ends tomorrow and commercial traffic starts flowing freely through the Strait of Hormuz once again, the world won't be getting nearly as much energy from the Middle East because dozens of oil and natural gas facilities have either been damaged or destroyed. That means that widespread rationing and global energy shortages are baked in no matter what happens next.

According to the executive director of the IEA, 75 energy sites in the Persian Gulf region have been attacked, and approximately a third of those sites have experienced severe damage…

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol was interviewed by the French newspaper Le Figaro earlier on Tuesday and warned that the Gulf energy shock "is more severe than those of 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined" because it is affecting oil, gas, food, fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and global trade all at once.

Birol said in the interview that more than 75 energy sites across the Gulf region have been attacked, with about a third severely damaged, suggesting tens of billions of dollars in repairs and a prolonged disruption of some energy flows, further tightening global supplies and compounding the disruption at the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.

It is going to take years to rebuild the damage that has already been done by this war.

So what will things look like if this war stretches on for many more months?

Tankers that traveled through the Strait of Hormuz before the war began have still been arriving at their destinations.

But this month that is going to stop happening, and Birol is warning that we are entering a "black April"…

These countries are producing just over half of pre-war levels. As for natural gas, exports have stopped entirely. March was already difficult, but April will be worse. If the Strait remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined products as in March. We are entering a "black April." In the Northern Hemisphere, April usually marks spring—but now it may feel like the beginning of winter.