US Dominance in the Middle Is Over

Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan's broker in the US-Iran talks, tells Bloomberg US Dominance in the Middle East Is 'Basically Over'

After nearly six weeks of war, how did Pakistan manage to get the United States and Iran to talk? Maleeha Lodhi was Pakistan's ambassador to the US on 9/11, a moment that reset the relationship between the two countries. Now, she says, personal relationships have made Islamabad the region's only viable peace broker. For her, this weekend's talks also carry wider significance, as middle powers take on a larger role in shaping global politics.

Bloomberg: What was happening behind the scenes that made these talks possible?
Lodhi: Pakistan's military and civilian leaders were both working the phones. Pakistan's army chief, [Field Marshal Asim Munir] in particular, was on the line to Washington at all times, from what I hear — especially in the last couple of days before the agreement was forged. Pakistan's Prime Minister [Shehbaz Sharif] was on the phone to the Iranian leadership constantly.

Bloomberg: The words about ending a civilization, that kind of rhetoric? Did you in that period also think, How is this going to bear fruit?
Lodhi: Yes. When President Trump began to sound so frustrated and angry, I thought, This is it. The US will never agree to the terms the Iranians conveyed — the famous 10 points. Initially, the Americans rejected them. But then, as we've seen, both sides walked back from the maximalist positions.

Bloomberg: Iran is going into these talks with very ambitious — some would say outlandish — demands. At the same time, President Trump is saying the military objectives have been met.
Lodhi: Both sides have a narrative which says they've achieved their objectives — they've been victorious. I think both sides know their terms for these negotiations are maximalist. The question is whether they can find sufficient common ground. They did find common ground when Oman was mediating. They were close to a deal at that time. Suddenly, America decided to join Israel in attacking Iran. So perhaps they can go back to that kind of an agreement.

But the additionality is provided by the Strait of Hormuz — that now becomes central to the negotiation. There you can see the positions are very far apart. President Trump keeps changing his mind, but he's saying he'd like to work with Iran to regulate or operate the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians are probably aghast at having to work with anybody, but they're prepared to work with Oman. They're saying, This has been a free ride and we are going to charge fees for whatever maritime traffic takes place through the strait — maximalist positions.

Bloomberg: We don't know what kind of agreement they'll reach or its chances of lasting. We know there's also a difference on Lebanon. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is saying Lebanon is part of this ceasefire, and Israel is saying it isn't.
Lodhi: The big question is whether Israel will sabotage the [US-Iran] ceasefire. If they were to play spoiler by continuing attacks on Iran and exposing Trump's inability to constrain Israel, then we are looking at a very complex and challenging situation.