U.S. Wheat Crop Forecast To Hit Half-Century Low As Drought Hits Breadbasket

05-13-2026 • https://www.zerohedge.com, by Tyler Durden

Production stress across America's breadbasket is now converging with a megadrought and mounting fertilizer constraints, adding upward pressure on prices at a time when global food prices are rising.

????Due to poor crop health and a record-low planted area, the United States will produce the smallest wheat volume since 1972.

2026 winter wheat output (67% of total output) by class is seen at the lowest levels since:
All winter: 1965
Hard red winter: 1957
Soft red winter: 2020 pic.twitter.com/OcIP3DA0VS
— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) May 12, 2026

The USDA forecast 2026/27 U.S. all-wheat production at 1.56 billion bushels, sharply below Wall Street expectations of around 1.74 billion, marking the smallest harvest since 1972.

????????The U.S. in 2026 is set to harvest the smallest wheat crop in 54 years.

Weather has challenged winter wheat this year and condition ratings have plunged. Pairing low yield with low planted area, USDA projects the smallest U.S. winter wheat harvest since 1965. pic.twitter.com/xe2alJOPyr
— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) May 12, 2026