There is a contradiction at the heart of the G7's new approach to critical minerals. When the Group of Seven closed its summit in Évian-les-Bains on June 17, it issued a statement insisting that these supply chains should be "governed by market principles." Yet almost every measure the alliance endorsed would put governments in charge instead.

The G7 agreed to draft what it calls a standards-based market and set a target to cap any one country's share of its rare-earth imports at 60% by 2030. It also weighed an American plan for tariff-enforced price floors, while Japan pushed for a shared stockpile of at least 90 days. Each step puts the government in charge of prices, volumes, and sourcing, and each is aimed at China.

The target, at least, is well chosen, because China's grip on the sector is not in doubt. The International Energy Agency reports that Beijing is the leading refiner for 19 of the 20 strategic minerals it tracks, with an average share near 70%, and that it handles roughly 90% of rare-earth processing and nearly all the heavy rare earths in defense-grade magnets.

Nor has Beijing hesitated to wield that position. Between 2023 and 2025, it placed export controls on gallium, germanium, graphite, antimony, and seven rare-earth elements, then announced sweeping new controls in October 2025 before suspending most of them for a year after talks with Washington. The pause buys time, but does not fix the underlying problem of access.

The United States, for its part, has already built the template the alliance now wants to scale. In July 2025, the Defense Department set a price floor of $110 per kilogram for the neodymium and praseodymium that MP Materials mines at Mountain Pass, nearly double China's roughly $60. The deal also made the Pentagon the company's largest shareholder through a $400 million stake and a ten-year purchase commitment. At a $60 market price, the floor alone could cost taxpayers about $65 million a year.

The plan floated at Évian would stretch that arrangement across an alliance, with a trading zone setting reference prices that act as floors, plus tariffs that rise when prices fall. European officials balked at adopting a pricing model built in Washington, wary of US sway over its prices, and the largest American mining trade group warned that incentives beat fixed prices. At the end of the summit, the statement set no binding floor.