A broader batch of country PMIs this week are expected to confirm
improving economic conditions in the euro area, consistent with solid
GDP growth in Q1. However, both France and Spain are expected to remain
just below the 50 mark, suggesting that the recovery is still uneven and
fragile. Later in the week, we expect German factory orders and
industrial production to confirm the positive sentiment in Germany.
MARKET ISSUES: The recent string of positive data in Europe may well
lead to higher growth forecasts in the coming months. However, we would
caution against excessive optimism, as only Germany has the conditions
for a full cyclical recovery.
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