The Obama administration is facing complete collapse of its
counterterrorism strategy in South Asia as it fails to ratify a new
status of forces agreement with Afghanistan. Yet many
intelligence insiders consider the failure to be a good thing.
The administration erred in constructing its capability to counter
the terrorist threat largely around the use of drones, which are
politically appealing in that they do not require placing soldiers in
harm’s way and are relatively cheap. In order to be effective,
however, drones have to be close enough to target areas to enable them
to spend considerable time hovering, and they are dependent on their
bases, a fact that produces its own logistical and political
complications. The maintenance of the bases depends on the connivance of
host countries in the region, and the security of the facilities has to
be guaranteed by the presence of thousands of American soldiers,
numbers that might not be available by the end of the year. There is
also strong Pentagon opposition to stationing thousands of combat troops
in a country largely to protect other U.S. government facilities.