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Why Russia's Unfazed By Falling Oil Prices

• http://www.zerohedge.com-Tyler Durden

By arguing that the slump in oil prices will finish off Russia just like it did the Soviet Union, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, writing in the Daily Telegraph, is forgetting how far Russia has come since those dark days.

It is true that the USSR couldn't cope with falling oil revenues and that Saudi Arabia is credited with helping to break up the former empire by dramatically increasing oil production from 2 million to 10 million barrels per day in 1985.

And sanctions could make it harder for Russian firms to access Western know-how, and ultimately affect Russia's oil output.

But that's only if they drag on for years—which is doubtful, given the price the EU is already paying. A cut in global oil supply—and stronger global growth—will likely rebalance the oil market in the meantime.

A measure of Russia's improved prospects is that the population is growing again for the first time since 1992. In fact, sanctions notwithstanding, Russia's finances look pretty stable for now.

Russia has only about $678 billion in foreign debt, which it's been vigorously paying down from the high of $732 billion reached at the end of 2013. (The US debt to foreigners has passed $6 trillion, and it's growing.) It's running a record-high budget surplus and a positive balance of payments. And it's circumventing the dollar through trade deals. Even after spending $60 billion propping up companies starved of dollar liquidity, Russia has nearly $375 billion of foreign reserves.


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