
IPFS News Link • General Opinion
Red Pill, Blue Pill, Cognitive Dissonance, Pavlov's Dogs
• http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com-Mike S.Nonetheless here I go again, because I think Hussman has something important to say. Please consider a few admittedly lengthy snips from his post today Pills for Cognitive Dissonance in a Speculative Bubble.
Several years of persistent yield-seeking speculation provoked by zero-interest rate monetary policies have created a fertile ground for cognitive dissonance. On one hand, any observer with historical perspective knows not only that the overvaluation from this kind of speculation inevitably ends in tears, but also that the heavy issuance of new speculative and low-quality securities during the bubble finances and enables unproductive malinvestment that leaves the economy far worse off in the end. On the other hand, prices have been advancing.
It's difficult to entertain both of those facts at once. One must simultaneously hold in mind reckless yield-seeking speculation, hypervaluation that rivals the 1929 and 2000 equity market peaks (see Yes, This is an Equity Bubble), zero interest rates, low prospective long-term returns all around, and persistent malinvestment that poses increasing systemic risks for the entire global economy, plus one fact that encourages us to forget it all: prices have been going up. Cognitive dissonance tempts us to reconcile this tension by ignoring one part of the story or another.