A Russian spacecraft that broke down on its way to the International Space Station last week will fall to Earth by midday on Friday, according to European Space Agency officials.

The uncrewed Progress 59P cargo vessel has been tumbling around the planet at about 17,000mph since it reached orbit last Tuesday. With all hope of recovering the spacecraft now lost, the capsule and its cargo are destined to tear into the atmosphere late on Thursday night (UK time) at the soonest.

Scientists tracking the stricken vessel with ground radar said 20-40% of the spacecraft could survive the intense heat of re-entry. The most likely part to withstand the inferno, at least partially, is the capsule's docking mechanism, a sturdy 200kg metal ring the size of a rear tractor wheel.