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IPFS News Link • Economy - International

Central Banks Continue To Rule Equity And Commodity Markets

• Zero Hedge

What was most noteworthy was the continuation of investor focus on central bank interventions vs. fundamentals across all asset classes. That focus has continued since the 2008 crisis and if anything has gotten worse.

The overall theme as a result has been: long high-risk, high-beta such as technology/biotech and short commodities, which accelerated beginning last year when the Fed signaled its desire to raise rates and refrain from more QE, as it allowed the EU and Japan to take lead on QE.

The so-called China "crisis" last summer ended like every other crisis – largely seen as a day trading event that quickly became ignored as focus shifted back to what central bank polices will be. Chinese authorities basically strong armed markets from collapsing by imposing trading restrictions.

Buy the dip theme continued to be the favored course despite deteriorating macroeconomics as U.S. retail spending, manufacturing, trade and capital expenditures all markedly slowed, as did the overall U.S. GDP and global GDP for that matter.

Markets started the year expecting 3 percent GDP in the 2nd half of 2015 but are now likely to end below 2 percent, yet financial markets are near highs mostly driven by large cap names (FANG – Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google—45X P/E combined!).

Credit markets largely deteriorated as well, especially in high-yield, which declined some 20 percent on an average. Access to credit became increasingly hard to come by for the energy sector as banks tightened their policies. The energy sector saw a 50 percent decline in debt issuance throughout Q3.


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