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IPFS News Link • Economy - Economics USA

JP MORGAN: US recession risk is growing

• Business Insider

Unemployment fell to just 4.9%, the first time it has started with a four-handle since February 2008, while average hourly workings rose by 0.5%, leaving the annual acceleration at 2.5%, ahead of expectations.

It was another bumper result.

However, while the official labor market data continues to impress, it is a lagging economic indicator, reflective of past strength in the US economy — particularly the services sector — rather than where it is heading.

According to JP Morgan's economic research team, consisting of Bruce Kasman, David Hensley and Joseph Lupton, stalling labour market productivity, along the savage decline in the price of crude oil and recent strength in the US dollar is weighing on corporate profitability, increasing the risk that firms pull back on hiring and capital spending plans leading to a greater likelihood of sharp economic slowdown — or worse — in the quarters ahead.


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