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The following chart suggests the stock market still has an outsized influence on the economy. In theory, the market capitalization to GDP ratio should be a mean reverting time series.
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The US has transitioned from more than a decade of quantitative easing to more recent quantitative tightening. QT will remain until the Federal Reserve is finished squashing inflation. However, such a massive paradigm shift in markets might result in
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Yesterday I illustrated how the "inflation has peaked" narrative is a myth. By quick way of review:
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It's a sure bet that as the economy worsens, unemployment surges, foreclosures rise, defaults climb, and economic misery ensues, we'll be told it's all capitalism's fault. The question one must ask, however, is, "What capitalism?"
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In a November 30, 2022, speech on "Inflation and the Labor Market," Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell blamed most of the 3.5 million estimated shortfall in the US labor force on premature retirements. He also blamed a large portion – betw
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As the Federal Reserve continues its fastest rate hike cycle since the stagflation crisis of 1980, a couple vital questions linger in the minds of economists everywhere ?" When is recession going to strike and when will the Fed reverse course on ti
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Only the Fed was quick to correct any misperception associated with calling its massive wealth transfer a loss - after all, the genius brain trust of career academics at the Fed could never be associated with such a pedestrian concepts as a "loss" as
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He said that would let bankers and economists see how the economy is reacting and if inflation is easing.
